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DomeMagazine.com —
November 18, 2011
Move Over Boomers,
Millennials Gaining
By Bill Castanier
There is one thing
Baby Boomers had going for them that
Millennials don’t. “Baby Boomers,” unlike
“Millennials,” wasn’t tricky to spell.
Nevertheless, Millennials — the largest
demographic segment in American history —
would like the Boomers to quit hogging all
the space and breathing all the oxygen.
Slowly but surely, Millennials — those born
between 1982 and 2003 — are gaining ground
and importance, especially on issues of
consumerism and politics.
In their second installment on the
Millennial generation, Millennial
Momentum: how a new generation is remaking
America, authors Morley Winograd and
Michael D. Hais delve more into how
America’s newest demographic is changing the
nation and will continue to do so, just like
baby boomers and generations before them
have since the American Revolution. Winograd
is the former chairman of the Michigan
Democratic Party and Hais is a media
researcher.
Their first book, Millennial Makeover
(See Dome, March 16, 2008, “Hold Tight to Your
Smartphones, the Millennial Revolution is at
Hand”), was written prior to the 2008
presidential election and explored how new
technology and the Millennials were merging
to create what they called a “seismic
shift.” During the last election about
one-third of the Millennials were eligible
to vote, and vote they did, the vast
majority of them for Obama.
The two authors predicted exactly that. And
gloat they did.
Winograd said, “We took a victory lap with
the paperback version of Millennial
Makeover.” He called the introduction, “Nine
thousand words to say I told you so.”
So get ready. There’s a presidential
election in 12 months, and the seers are at
it again.
The authors believe that the Millennial
generation’s power is just beginning to be
felt, especially in that they are still in
the process of developing their political
ideals. In 2012 three of every five of the
95 million Millennials will be able to vote.
The authors say the first real evidence of
the Millennial power was in the Obama
election of 2008 and it will be felt even
more in the upcoming election.
“Frankly, they’ve had more influence in
other areas such as entertainment,” said
Winograd. When it comes to music, games and
movies, “Millennials are already the target
audience.” But, he said, any group as big as
the Millennials — by 2020 they will
represent one of every three adults — will
have a major impact on policy makers.
Winograd finds it interesting that the
political world has trouble recognizing the
importance of Millennials, when the
entertainment industry is going full speed
after them. “The political world is still
talking about older voters.”
The Millennial generation has some
“surprising” attitudes, which the book
details.
Hais said the majority of the group has
favorable attitudes toward labor unions.
“They are a group-oriented generation and
they work best as groups.”
That almost seems counterintuitive to
another of their observations, that
Millennials believe in both the individual
and individual liberty.
Winograd said we saw some of that solidarity
in Madison, Wisconsin, when crowds
approaching 80,000–100,000 attracted by
social media showed up to protest. The
authors are unsure why nothing approaching
that happened in Michigan.
The authors emphasize that the Millennial
group is not top-down driven, but is
fiercely independent. Even though they
believe in smaller government, they are just
as likely to become the nation’s most civic
generation (much like their grandparents’
and, in some cases, great grandparents — the
Greatest Generation).
The recent Occupy efforts across the country
are a good example of Millennial effect,
Winograd said. “It’s a bottom-up effort
being joined by organized efforts [unions].”
Hais said there is some belief on the part
of Republicans that “Millennials will
outgrow their silliness.…“They believe if
you wait five or ten years it will go away.”
But that runs counter, he said, to a large
body of social science research that says
attitudes formulated at a young age are the
attitudes you keep the rest of your life.
Based on the data, Winograd predicts that
this generation’s ideals will become more
the mainstream over the course of the next
decade. He said inclusion is one example,
and the specific issues they care about are
easy to find on social media sites.
“It will take just a little longer for them
to be in charge,” he said.
Which brings up the question of what will
happen in workplaces. Winograd says that
supervisor control will diminish. In
addition, Millennials believe that there
still is a major role for government, but it
will be smaller and driven more by
individuals.
“However, they need to see success from
government, and a long recession may make
them more conservative,” said Hais. This
argument may give credence to the
conservatives’ goal of simply waiting out
the wild seeds.
The book also details that a solid majority
of Millennials currently lean Democratic,
which, of course, Democrats will pin their
hopes on for the 2012 election. By next
November, Millennials will be a full
one-quarter of all voters. Forty percent are
African American, Latino, Asian or mixed
race, and in total there are currently 27
million more Millennials alive than Boomers.
When it comes to social issues, Winograd
says Millennials are much more tolerant of
differences. Both Hais and Winograd say that
it makes you wonder why some segments of the
political spectrum are anti-immigrant when
one-fifth of Millennials have immigrant
parents.
Also, where Millennials want to live breaks
most stereotypes. Hais says research shows
that Millennials’ first choice for the ideal
place to live is the suburbs, with big
cities and rural areas ranked next in
importance. “It was the older generation who
idealized small-town living.”
Hais says there is good reason to be
optimistic about the future and that it’s
“not pie in the sky.” He says research shows
that the Millennials will force the country
to address long simmering problems such as
race, immigration, financial security and
income distribution.
“During all great periods of change, history
shows that all the problems have been
resolved in a positive way,” he said.
Both authors think it strange that two
60ish, chubby-cheeked guys are the gurus of
the Millennials. “We are 40 years older than
Millennials,” Hais said.
Winograd and Hais base most of their
assumptions for Millennial behavior on
well-accepted observation and research
documenting that about every 80 years in our
country’s history the populous has
reassessed its collective values.
Hais said the first re-evaluation occurred
during the Revolutionary War, then the Civil
War and then during the last monumental
event, the Great Depression. The two cite
authors William Strauss and Neil Howe for
their seminal books on the impact of
generational change.
Strauss and Howe laid out four types of
generations that appear in each cycle:
idealist, reactive, civic and adaptive. They
claim that each cycle has what is called a
fourth turning or significant generational
change, and each time there have been
identifiable events that always run in
order: catalyst, regeneracy, climax and
resolution.
According to the authors of Millennial
Momentum, the country is currently in what
is called a FUD — a time of fear,
uncertainty and doubt. (What better three
words could describe where we are right now
in the cycle?) We have already seen the
catalyst, which Hais and Winograd say was
the collapse of the nation’s financial
system, and the beginning of the regeneracy,
which might be best characterized by the
bailouts. But they stress in the book that
there appears to be no consensus about what
the climax event is or what the resolution
will be. Both are open for discussion.
And that’s why the first characteristics of
fear, anxiety and stress from this
realignment usually run a decade before
there is a dramatic climax. We seem to be
bogged down in FUD, which for the authors
means they might have a couple more books in
the cue looking at the evolution of this
demographic segment.
The authors said that they wrote the second
book to help the country “understand the
choices before it.” The title of the second
chapter, “Millennials Are About to Take Over
America,” lets Boomers know where they
stand, especially since Hais and Winograd
say Millennials are much more in tune with
the GI generation. One example they offer is
that both generations love musicals. The
popularity of the musicals Glee and High
School Musical represents the spirit of
camaraderie.
In their book the authors write that the
path to a new, possibly drastically
different, civic ethos can be “vigorous, and
riotous,” adding, “Regardless of the
tenacity of this debate, what will win out
can be found in the beliefs and values of
the Millennial generation.”
The authors say below are some of what we
know of those values. Millennials:
Love to serve country
Hold a concern for the environment
Believe there is a serious inequity in the
economy and in the education system
Want to marry and have children
Believe in global connectivity and a
multicultural world.
Hais and Winograd throw stones equally at
Republicans and Democrats for their
clumsiness in accepting Millennials:
Republicans for what the authors call “the
just say no attitude,” and the Dems for
Obama’s failure in adopting the “vision and
values” that got him elected.
Millennial Momentum is not just a book for
political junkies, but also for marketers
and those who care about the future of our
education system, where we will live, how
work places are organized, and our
relationship with the rest of the world.
The bottom line to both authors is,
“tweaking existing systems will not work,
and they must respond to new values.”
Bill Castanier, a retired state
government administrator and Michigan State
University advertising graduate, writes a
weekly literary column for Lansing City
Pulse and manages the blog
mittenlit.com,
a daily look at Michigan literature and
authors. He also is a member of the Michigan
Notable Book selection committee and the
board of MSU Press.
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